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by a News Weekly contributor

The Queensland election result continues what appears to be a growing momentum of voters moving away from Labor that started with the change of government in the Northern Territory.

After a period of unprecedented dominance by Labor on the Australian mainland, the LNP win in Queensland was clear and decisive – stronger in terms of seats than the previous Labor win in the 2020 election. Though you would not think so if you took at their word: the Federal Labor spokespeople who were putting their best spin on the result by insisting it was not the landslide that was expected.

In fact, it was a very poor result for Labor in Queensland, involving a 7.4 per cent swing to the LNP, and a bad omen for Anthony Albanese federally. To put it in perspective, at the 2012 Labor wipe-out election, the Campbell Newman-led LNP won 49.7 per cent of first preference votes – and Labor just 26.7 per cent, according to an analysis by The Courier Mail.

Excluding that election, the 2024 primary vote of 32.8 per cent is the lowest for Queensland Labor since 1908. Even during the Split in the late 1950s and early 1960s, the combined Labor vote in Queensland never fell below 50 per cent. It has only ever been lower than 40 per cent in 1998, when One Nation won 22.7 per cent of the vote and 11 seats. Labor’s primary vote in that election was 38.9 per cent – and it won 44 seats.

Mad Spending and Scare Tactics

The Queensland election introduced two new aspects to electioneering that will prove deeply regrettable if replicated federally in the election to be held before the end of May next year. The first is the mad spending offered by Labor Premier Steven Miles, that extended from virtually free transport to free school lunches, but also to taxpayer-funded petrol stations.

Queensland under Miles was the second most woke government in Australia but could only afford such largesse courtesy of the coal export mining royalties.

The second issue was the abortion scare – imitating the election in the United States – which ultimately is only about abortion. Certainly, the Katter Australia Party would like to change the law in Queensland to mandate care for babies born alive.

LNP leader, now Queensland Premier, David Crisafulli declared there would be no change, Robbie Katter said he wanted to introduce a private members bill.

The issue then blew up when Labor sought to capitalise on a perceived political weakness for the LNP and Crisafulli struggling to properly explain how he could guarantee the status quo if anti-abortion MPs were allowed a conscience vote in parliament. Mr Crisafulli was only stating the obvious, but it was enough for Labor to go the full Kamala.

Multiple Issues

The extent to which abortion moves votes one way or another is not clear, as those on either side of the debate have entrenched views, but Labor believed it was on a winner.

During the campaign, Federal Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price declared her position as being pro-life. This prompted howls of outrage from the left-wing media and was used by Labor as proof positive that the “right wing” of the LNP was seeking to recriminalise abortion.

Of course, abortion laws are made at a state and territory level, but this will not prevent federal Labor from weaponising the issue during a federal campaign.

Labor pundits believe that the Queensland election will have given voters there the opportunity to vent, and that they will vote differently at the federal level.

Clearly the state election was fought over crime, and the vote for the LNP was much stronger in the regions than in Brisbane. However, even Queensland Labor conceded that cost of living was biting hard.

Albanese, already under fire on a number of fronts, will be coming under enormous pressure to do something big and dramatic, which will inevitably mean spending more money.

The danger for Labor now is that the momentum against it will gather force.

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Republished with thanks to News Weekly.