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New research shows an alarming trend: as people become more progressive, they’re more likely to abandon Christianity. Here’s what that means for churches today.

A belief held by many Christians today is that Jesus was neither “right” nor “left”, and that politics is best kept out of the church.

However, new data roundly debunks these popular mantras.

According to political scientist and researcher Ryan Burge, conservative politics and Christian faith are in such strong alignment that one reliably predicts the other.

Burge is an associate professor at Eastern Illinois University and a former pastor with decades of ministry experience. His insights come from years of studying the intersection of faith and politics.

In a recent post on X, Burge wrote, “If I were to guess someone’s religious affiliation and I got only one question, it would be, ‘What’s your political ideology?’”

His comment captioned a chart that laid bare the devastating impact progressive politics has had in secularising Americans since the mid-1980s. Conversely, those with a conservative outlook were far more likely to keep the faith.

If I were to guess someone’s religious affiliation and I only got one question.

It would be, “What’s your political ideology?”

12% of political conservatives ID as non-religious.

Compared to

~50% of political liberals. pic.twitter.com/13KkRsmIke

— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) March 1, 2025

It’s a finding that should shock every Christian leader — and one that comes with profound implications for how the church must approach discipleship in the 2020s and beyond.

A Closer Look at the Data

Before we get to those implications, let’s consider three more data points from Ryan Burge.

The first is a bar graph reiterating what we just looked at — that a person’s political ideology strongly predicts their faith affiliation. Very progressive people are most likely to be non-religious (62% in 2024), while very conservative people are least likely to abandon their faith (11%).

In short, the more progressive a person is, the more likely they are to reject religious faith altogether, while conservatives tend to maintain strong spiritual beliefs.

Second, political alignment is a reliable predictor of church attendance. While just 8% of progressive university students attend worship weekly, 33% of conservatives do — a fourfold difference.

Conversely, while around 47% of progressive students never attend church, only 17% of conservatives say the same, underscoring how faith is significantly stronger among conservative young people.

Third, the link between progressive ideology and lack of church attendance holds true across all ethnic groups. Among those who never attend church, 45% of Whites, 48% of Blacks, and 49% of Asians identify as progressive. However, among weekly attenders, this drops to 11%, 23%, and 16%, respectively.

Put in simple terms, the more spiritually active an individual is, the less likely they are to align with progressive political views, regardless of their ethnic or cultural background.

These three data sets couldn’t be clearer: a strong faith commitment correlates closely with a conservative outlook, while progressivism generally aligns with a rejection of faith.

Politics and Plausibility Structures

Though these findings might be uncomfortable for Christian leaders — especially those who like to avoid weighing into politics — they have major implications for how pastors and churches should conduct ministry today.

Observing these trends, pastor and commentator Josh Howerton writes, “Our missiology has not caught up to the (extremely uncomfortable) fact that data increasingly shows a society’s, city’s [or] person’s faith are frequently downstream of their political views.”

“When a society (or person or city) becomes more conservative, it leads to faith and conversion at-scale,” he adds. And on the other hand, “When a society (or person or city) becomes more progressive, it leads to de-conversion and lack of faith at-scale.”

Howerton believes this is more than happenstance. The reason different political outlooks have such a powerful influence on people’s belief systems is because they install a certain “plausibility structure” that preconditions people to either embrace or reject Christianity.

“When conservatism (broadly defined) is installed in a culture, it installs a “plausibility structure” that leads to faith,” he explains.

“But when progressivism is installed in a culture, it installs a plausibility structure that leads away from faith, because it disciples people to view many good things as evil and many evil things as good, resulting in Christianity and Christian morality being seen as repressive, outdated, harmful [and] evil.”

Pastor and teacher John Mark Comer agrees. He has said, “My pastoral experience is that progressive Christianity — not for all people, but for most — is a stopover on the way to post-Christianity.”

The same observation has been made even more bluntly by cultural commentator and former pastor Josh Daws, who writes, “Conservatism is an onramp to Christianity. Progressivism is an offramp.”

5 Key Takeaways for Christian Leaders

All this being true, what are some practical ways pastors and Christian leaders can disciple their people in our fraught political landscape?

1. Acknowledge the Obvious

The correlation between political conservatism and heartfelt faith is not merely sociological — it’s theological. Biblical Christianity naturally aligns with conservative moral and political views for one very simple reason: while imperfect, conservatism is a more faithful reflection of the moral order for society laid out in God’s Word — whether on the sanctity of life, marriage and family, or religious freedom.

Instead of shying away from this obvious truth, Christian leaders should acknowledge the inherent link between Christian faith and a conservative outlook, and encourage their people to build their political commitments on the teachings of Scripture.

2. Be Politically Engaged

A society that embraces progressive ideology creates a “plausibility structure” that causes people to abandon the Christian faith. Conservatism, on the other hand, moves people towards Christianity.

As such, Christian leaders should speak boldly into the public square in defence of conservative biblical values, knowing they will be creating the conditions for more people to believe. While believers should not become sidetracked by political debates, they must also understand that the gospel carries political implications that are vital for the well-being of society.

3. Warn Against ‘Progressive Christianity’

Progressive Christianity — also popularly known as ‘deconstruction’ — is often not a legitimate form of faith, but a stepping stone to secularism and apostasy.

While Christian leaders should engage thoughtfully with progressive ideologies, they must clearly communicate that these views often serve as a stepping stone to secularism and unbelief. The Bible’s warnings against false teaching, such as those in 2 Timothy 4:3-4, are particularly relevant in this context. Pastors should caution their congregants that progressivism can be a deceptive ideology that pulls people away from Christ, and instead ground them in the sound doctrine provided by Scripture.

4. Encourage Regular Worship

Church attendance is not merely a spiritual discipline or a cultural tradition but a critical means of shaping a person’s worldview.

Without being legalistic, Christian leaders should stress the importance of regular worship and biblical teaching in building a life that can withstand the moral decay promoted in society by progressive ideology.

Church should be a place where believers find community, are affirmed in their identity as God’s people, and are reminded of their call to live holy lives, not conformed to the pattern of this world (Romans 12:2).

5. Speak to the Issues

The political debates raging in our society — whether gender ideology, race or sexual behaviours — are rooted in moral and ontological questions that Scripture addresses directly. These issues are not secondary to the Christian faith, but are central to our understanding of society and human identity.

Pastors should unapologetically declare the truth about human sexuality, marriage, gender and race, making clear that the Bible doesn’t equivocate on these issues (see e.g. Genesis 1:27, Matthew 19:4-6, Acts 17:26). Congregants must be equipped not just to believe the truths of Scripture but defend these vital beliefs and be bold in standing for the truth.

In conclusion, the connection between faith and politics is not a passing trend. It is grounded in the moral order God has established for society, as revealed in His Word.

If pastors and Christian leaders care about the spiritual health of the people under their care, they can no longer afford to separate faith from politics. Political neutrality is not an option when souls are at stake. The truth is that silence in the pulpit today leads to secularism in the pews tomorrow.

It’s time the church woke up to the fact that the gospel is political — and always has been.

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