JUST IN: One Nation Party Ahead of Both Major Parties in New Poll
A federal election held today would be ‘too close to call’.
On Tuesday, I wrote about how right-wing populism is finally becoming a force in Australian politics, with the previously fringe One Nation Party racking up some electoral wins after overtaking the cratering centre-right Liberal-National Coalition in polls early this year.
Today, a new poll has One Nation in front of both major parties, sounding the alarm that it could pose a serious threat not just for the Coalition, but for centre-left Labor as well.
This is the first time a minor party has overtaken both majors in a national poll, ever.
Polling company Roy Morgan says a federal election held today would be “too close to call” with a “likely hung parliament.”
According to the snap SMS poll, One Nation has more primary support (32 percent) than Labor (28.5 percent), and almost double the support of the Coalition (16.5 percent).
This is a considerably higher result for One Nation than previous polling this year, which has showed that between 21-24 percent of respondents would vote for the party.
Post-budget sentiment would be a contributing factor: the poll was conducted over May 13-14, just after Labor’s widely criticised federal budget was handed down.
On a choice between only Labor and One Nation, Labor leads by just two points, at 51 percent vs. 49 percent, respectively. This should seriously concern Labor given One Nation’s stated intention of targeting some of its stronghold seats, starting with western Sydney.
Between Labor and the Coalition, Labor leads with 55 percent to the Coalition’s 45 percent. On a three-party preferred basis, taking into account major party preferences, Labor is comfortably in front (44.5 percent) against One Nation (36.5 percent) and the Coalition (19 percent).
As discussed in my previous post, the Australian system allows major parties to take government even if only a third or so of the population gives them the primary vote due to preferencing.
The poll also found that the majority of its sample of 2,348 people disapprove of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (59 percent). A YouGov poll from April 28-May 5 had Albo’s disapproval rating at 54 percent. Nonetheless, that same poll showed that Albo was more popular (54 percent) than One Nation leader Pauline Hanson (35 percent) as preferred Prime Minister.
Source: Sky News Pulse / YouGov (28 April – 5 May 2026)
In the Roy Morgan poll, respondents who favoured One Nation were motivated by concern about immigration and national identity, deep dissatisfaction with the major parties, perceptions that Australia is in economic and cultural decline, and opposition to “woke” politics, climate policies and global institutions. Party leader Pauline Hanson was viewed by partisans as an authentic and honest political figure.
As it was a snap SMS poll and not Roy Morgan’s usual face-to-face methodology, this may have some bearing on the results. Further polling will show whether this was a blip, or the continuation of One Nation’s dramatic rise in Australian politics.
Tuesday’s backgrounder: “Australia’s bulwark against populism is cracking“.
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Republished with thanks to Dystopian Down Under.
Featured image: L-R: Anthony Albanese (Labor), Pauline Hanson (One Nation), Angus Taylor (Liberal Party/Coalition).
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Go Pauline and One Nation which will end the sight of dishonest politicians rorting eg Travel Benefits and remaining in power, or like Fatima Payman who has double nationality (breach of section 44 of Constitution ) . Long overdue a proper Audit of where the billions given to the Aboriginal Industry are going? We have seen recently the dire poverty and crime in which many live . She will properly investigate the NDIS Fraud and prevent Inheritance Tax on the Family Home and proposed inclusion in the Aged Pension Asset Test. She is all for Small Business which is Australia’s major employer. Walking through Hobart CBD shows a city centre dead with hardly any people, nothing but shoe shops, cafes, etc all GONE ! Tasmania should be receiving a bigger share of the GST pie as it used to . No more squandering billions to keep the Labor Allen govt in power . Tasmania needs proper roads , more public transport, etc, etc so why is it treated as if it is not part of Australia?Is it because it has a Liberal Govt ? One Nation will lead our country to become prosperous again with abolishing the Dept of Climate Change and other wasteful duplications of State departments. There will be more mining, increased taxation on foreign companies and Oil Refineries established in most States. The list of Reforms to make Australia prosperous again and undo the damage caused by 50 years of the Duopoly (Labor + LNP ) is enormous. It will take time to end Woke and its insanity.
I’ll say it again… there must be a cross preference deal between LNP and ONP to make sure labor/teals/greens are not returned by default.
LNP must focus on getting rid of labor/teals/greens are priority #1.
Both LNP and ONP must be prepared for a Coalition 2.0 for the sake of the nation.
We must crush the marxist agenda.
Well said Kym.