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New ABS modelling has dramatically changed Australia’s excess mortality figures, raising questions about the revised methodology, pandemic-era deaths and whether Australians are getting the full picture.

In July of this year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics introduced its new excess mortality modelling methodology when it released its excess mortality estimates for January 2024 to December 2025.

The previous methodology, used throughout the pandemic period from 2020-2023, was replaced because Australia is apparently now “in a context where COVID-19 is a persistent contributor to mortality.”

Pandemic-Era Deaths and the Changing Baseline

The excess mortality figures for January 2024 to December 2025 appear to be low when compared with the figures from 2020-2023. In fact, they are now in the negative after being in the positive throughout the pandemic period.

This raises questions. Not all excess deaths were COVID-19 deaths, so what caused the additional excess deaths during this period? What is the scientific justification for the change in modelling? How different would the figures be if the previous modelling had continued to be used, and would they tell a different story?

During the recent Senate Estimates hearings, I asked the ABS what the rationale for changing the modelling method was, and what the figures might look like if it had not been changed.

You can watch that line of questioning here:

Australians Deserve Answers

We know that many of the excess deaths of the pandemic period were not “from” or even “with” COVID-19, according to the ABS’s own data, so can it be just the virus that has been contributing to the new baseline?

The previous modelling method used mortality data from 2013-2019 to establish an expected baseline and showed a high number of excess deaths above that baseline across the years 2021-2023. For example, in 2022, there were 20,022 excess deaths, 13,317 of which were “from or with” COVID-19, hence, many were not directly attributable to the virus.

However, in the new modelling, the pandemic years are now incorporated into the expected baseline (except for 2022, which is excluded for its especially high mortality). The baseline against which excess deaths are measured is now higher than in previous years measured under the original model, meaning the excess deaths figure is lower.

As part of the Senate estimates process, I have asked the ABS to provide the excess death rates from 2024 and 2025 utilising the pandemic era model. I await a response.

Australians deserve answers to these and other questions, and I am going to keep asking them.

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Republished with thanks to Senator Alex Antic. Image courtesy of Adobe.