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Turning to the Indo-Pacific, countries there are increasingly preparing for war.

A recent report from Macquarie University for the Defence Department highlights a rapid escalation in arms spending within the region. While most of this spending is due to the PRC’s military modernisation, the rest of the region is also accelerating weapons uptake, to symbolise their own growing power and to prepare for conflict. In addition, states are using these capabilities to crack down on internal challenges, such as in the case of Myanmar.

In his 1986 report, defence expert Paul Dibb said that Australia would have a ten-year warning time before attack, as it would take that long for regional powers to develop the forces needed for such an intensive and complex operation.

The Macquarie report refines this model by splitting warning time into distinct types of conflict:

• Attack — that is, artillery strikes and blockades;
• Invasion — troops making landfall; and
• Grayzone conflict — influence operations, sabotage and covert action.

The authors further identify two core concepts — “space” and “time” — as shaping the environment. They argue that the space — the geography and challenges it presents — has not changed. As such, invasion remains as unlikely as ever due to the vast resources required.

However, many “time”-related factors, such as procurement times, have accelerated. While major industrial powers such as the PRC, Japan and South Korea largely manufacture their own weapons systems, thanks to extensive investment and experience, most of the region now buys “off the shelf”, readily available platforms.

Australia tries to do both. However, this leads to the situation where Australia will have nuclear submarines by the time that NASA intends to have men on Mars. Singapore, on the other hand, will have submarines within five years.

It makes sense to have an indigenous defence industry. The Macquarie report, however, points out that, by the time Australia sets one up — and it will take time — Australia may have been attacked. One option is buying off the shelf now and establishing maintenance centres in country, thereby allowing industry to develop while still developing preparedness.

But this leads to the question of what to buy. While a lot of commentary focuses on the need for air/sea assets to fight a maritime war, the reality is that no one knows what the next war might require. The chaotic contagion of Russian action could spread any which way. Land war and tanks are not going away.

It is not only “fighting the last war” that leads to defeat. It is lacking the flexibility to fight in the war that happens. The Australian Defence Review could not be more important in this situation.

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By Edward Gray
Originally published at News Weekly.