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The 2016 Senate voting system overhaul quietly gave the Greens a significant, hidden advantage, and I’ve seen it firsthand.

As a psephologist and someone with a deep understanding of the mathematics behind voting preferences, I can tell you this reform was not just an innocent update. It was designed with a specific purpose: to boost the Greens at the expense of the broader electorate.

The 2016 Change to Senate Voting

Until 2016, a Senate candidate needed a full quota of 14% of the votes to be elected. Since achieving 14% of the primary vote is difficult, most candidates require the flow-on from preferences.

The new method introduced in 2016 means that if you only number six parties on the Senate ballot paper, but none of them are successful, your vote is ‘exhausted’. Your vote will not be allocated to any other preferences.

With less than 100% of votes in play, the final Senator (or two) can be elected on a partial quota.

Suggesting that voters need to number only their top six preferences above the line may have seemed like a simple change. But in reality, it was a carefully constructed method designed to favour the Greens, a fact many Coalition MPs failed to recognise when Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull pushed it through.

While the public might have thought this was a positive step to simplify voting, it was, in truth, a dangerous shift that undermines the integrity of our democracy.

The Greens’ Advantage

This reform gives the Greens a hidden advantage, allowing them to secure a disproportionate number of Senate seats.

This happened in 2016, when the Greens, with only 8.7% of the vote, secured 12% of the Senate seats. Meanwhile, the combined votes of all the minor parties (right-wing, centrist, and others), which were 20% of the electorate, well over the required 14% quota, missed out due to the ‘exhaustion’ of votes not numbered beyond six.

In 2019, with only 10% of the vote, the Greens gained 15% of the Senate seats. Meanwhile, all the minor parties’ combined votes of 18.6% were effectively ignored. If many voters had numbered beyond six, a non-Green party would have been elected to the final Senate seat instead.

How Preferences Are Wasted: A Real-World Example

Let me give you an example. Suppose a voter in NSW decides to vote for smaller parties, such as the Australian Christians, the Indigenous party, or the Libertarian/Heart coalition, without numbering beyond their top six. These parties, while well-meaning, have little to no chance of winning a seat. By stopping at six, voters inadvertently waste their preferences. More importantly, they miss out on giving their preferences to parties that actually have a chance of winning, like Family First, One Nation or Trumpet of Patriots.

Image: People First’s QLD Senate How to Vote Card. This card does not preference a major party and only numbers six boxes, which risks the vote being wasted/exhausted.

Image: Trumpet of Patriots’ NSW Senate How to Vote Card. This card does not preference a major party and only numbers six boxes, which risks the vote being wasted/exhausted.

When preferences are not numbered beyond the top six, the Greens, who may not have the broad support needed to win a seat outright (i.e., get a full quota of 14% as in the old scheme), can still win the last Senate seat because they gained a partial quota.

Interestingly, while many MPs, notably from the Liberal and National parties, blindly supported Turnbull’s reform, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) saw the implications.

In Hansard – the official record of parliamentary debates – we can see that the ALP vehemently opposed this change. Why? Because they understood that the new method would give an advantage to the Greens at the expense of the ALP (and others). (ALP MPs did not name the Greens but stated that the new method gives a “medium” party an unfair advantage. A “medium party” gains about two-thirds of a quota, and usually the Greens are the only ‘medium’ party.)

A Crucial and Simple Solution: Number All Preferences

The solution to this problem is simple: number all the boxes above the line. Not just 1 to 6, but every single box.

Doing this ensures that your vote doesn’t go to waste (“exhaust” is the technical term in the electoral law). It ensures that your preferences flow in a way that avoids giving the Greens a hidden advantage.

In NSW, there are 18 Senate groups. If voting above the line, then voters should number every box, putting the Greens last by placing an 18 in the Greens’ box in column R. (Similarly, if you do vote below the line, requiring a lot harder work in researching candidates, then number all the candidates in all 18 columns, again putting the Greens’ candidates in column R last.)

This ensures that if your top few choices do not win, your vote will be transferred down to favour parties with a chance of securing a seat instead of the Greens. It’s an easy, practical way to ensure your vote counts in a fairer, more representative manner.

Justice and Fairness in Voting Systems

Christians are called to act justly and seek fairness in everything. The Bible teaches that everyone should be treated fairly and that justice should prevail (Micah 6:8).

The way we vote is no different. If the system is rigged to favour one group disproportionately, it’s a failure of justice. As a nation, we should strive for a system that reflects the will of the people, not one that skews the outcome to benefit a minority.

This issue is not just political. It’s a matter of integrity, fairness, and representation. The current voting system undermines those principles by allowing a small group to gain outsized power in the Senate.

Christians must advocate for a system that upholds justice, ensures every vote counts, and promotes transparency.

In the upcoming elections, it’s crucial that Australians understand the consequences of the current Senate voting system.

By numbering all preferences, we can reduce the Greens’ unfair advantage and ensure that nobody’s vote “exhausts,” i.e., goes to waste.

This is not just about electing the right people. It’s about protecting the integrity of our democracy. As citizens and as Christians, we have a responsibility to ensure that our electoral system is just, fair, and genuinely representative of the people.

Let’s not allow a flawed system to undermine the democratic process. Number all the boxes above the line (or below), and place the Greens last. It’s a simple but vital step to restoring fairness to the Senate voting process.

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Image via Wikimedia Commons.