One Nation’s Rise Was Inevitable
One Nation is now outperforming the Coalition in major polls. Is Australia finally experiencing the same political reset taking place across the Western hemisphere?
The question on the minds of many Australians after the Coalition’s disastrous 2025 loss was whether the Coalition can be revived as the vanguard for genuine conservative values in Australia — or whether a minor-right vehicle is needed to take its place.
As I wrote rather pointedly at the time, the Liberal party “can return to its roots, or it can wither, die, and be replaced by a movement that’s fit for purpose”.
Sussan Ley’s appointment as Liberal leader was an early sign the Coalition’s decline was terminal.
Recent polls tracking the rise of One Nation appear to confirm this diagnosis. But is it so?
Two Earth-Shattering Polls
In early January, DemosAU found that One Nation was polling on par with the Coalition at 23 per cent apiece, compared with 29 per cent for Labor — an almost 17 per cent swing to One Nation since the election.
Shockingly, in head-to-head match-ups against Labor, DemosAU even found One Nation (50-50) outperforming the Coalition (52-48).
The poll’s other significant discovery was that, as well as pulling in support from 31 per cent of disaffected Coalition voters, One Nation attracted 11 per cent of 2025 Labor voters.
At the time, I wondered if this poll was an outlier — until Newspoll corroborated the trend. As reported by The Australian on Monday:
One Nation’s primary vote has risen seven points to 22 per cent over the past two months, with the Coalition dropping three points to a record low of 21 per cent and Labor falling four points to 32 per cent.
Newspoll’s finding marks the first time in Australian history that a minor party is more popular than either of the majors — no small achievement.
🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention
🟥 ALP: 32% (-4)
🟧 ONP: 22% (+7)
🟦 L/NP: 21% (-3)
🟩 GRN: 12% (-1)
⬛️ OTH: 13% (+1)Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 55% (-3)
🟦 L/NP: 45% (+3)Newspoll | Jan 2026 | n=1224 | +/- 17-20 Nov
— AusPoll (@AusPoll6) January 18, 2026
Are Australian Voters Being Radicalised?
If the mainstream press is to be believed, the swing towards One Nation represents a bubbling stew of reactionary grievance, conspiratorial thinking and ideological extremism — generously seasoned with Trump-style politics imported from overseas, of course.
Fake news aside, here’s what it really represents: a return to political equilibrium.
In representative systems like Australia’s, political stability depends on substantial alignment between the electorate and parliament. When that balance breaks down — when parties drift away from the priorities of their base — voters naturally restore it.
Far from being evidence of voter radicalisation, the rising popularity of One Nation is simply the Australian electorate signalling that the major parties have, by and large, abandoned them.
Over recent election cycles, both Labor and the Coalition have lurched left, with the Coalition in particular forsaking its own stated beliefs. Look no further than the Liberal party’s collusion with Labor just this week to ram through totalitarian strictures on speech. Senator Alex Antic alone defied his party to vote against the dystopian bill.
It’s not just the loss of our fundamental freedoms that average Australians bemoan. As identified in a seperate survey by Freshwater, voters are gravitating towards One Nation due to longstanding concerns over crime and immigration.
A Worldwide Populist Reset
The major parties might believe the legacy media’s cope about Australians abandoning them for radical ideas, but as long as they do, they’ll be living in la-la land.
The simple truth is that the Australian electorate is recalibrating. Voters are acting to restore the balance lost by the major parties abandoning them.
This phenomenon is not unique to Australia, but has been unfolding worldwide for some time:
- In the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK leads both Labor and the Tories in major polls.
- In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is similarly outperforming the country’s major parties in recent polls.
- In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (Rassemblement National) enjoys the highest favourability in polling.
- Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) has secured some of its strongest electoral support in decades and has become a major force in national politics.
- In Latin America, Argentina elected libertarian Javier Milei president in 2023, while El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele governs with extremely high popular backing.
Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet
One Nation is by no means a silver bullet for Australia’s political woes. The party is known to field candidates whose views on abortion, drugs or other issues that many Christians would struggle to endorse. Its top-down leadership structure and dependance on the personality of Pauline Hanson will need significant overhaul for it to ever become a party of government.
In the meantime, there’s the very real prospect that, due to preference flows, One Nation’s rising popularity will make it harder for Christian parties like Family First to see their candidates elected.
With these caveats in place, it’s unquestionably true that One Nation’s platform is far more faithful to the Liberal Party’s Menzian heritage than the Liberal Party is today. It’s also true that Australia would be much better off today if that vision had remained the genuine alternative in Canberra in recent decades — whether via the Coalition, One Nation, or any other vehicle.
The recent polls don’t mean Australia is out of the woods — yet. But they do signal that a major reset is underway in the Australian body politic. The Coalition still has a choice to reform or die. The South Australian division of the Liberal Party is certainly providing a blueprint to that end.
If not, as the polls suggest, One Nation is best placed to step into the fray if the Liberals opt for self-destruction.
The road in either direction is a bumpy one. But buckle up, because there’s no turning back now.
___
Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
12 Comments
Leave A Comment
Recent Articles:
24 June 2026
4.8 MINS
After scoring the sixth-fastest goal in FIFA's 2026 World Cup, Christian footballer Felix Nmecha dropped to one knee and symbolically laid his crown at the feet of Christ. It's a gesture that captures everything about him: faith first, football second.
24 June 2026
2.9 MINS
If you’re a parent or a grandparent, you probably worry about what your child or grandchild is learning at school. In the first of its kind in Australia, a survey has been launched to measure parent attitudes to Respectful Relationship sessions in schools.
24 June 2026
5.9 MINS
Nation First looks into Keir Starmer’s resignation and why Anthony Albanese should be worried by the same policy failures now haunting Labor at home.
24 June 2026
4.1 MINS
Rupert Lowe has just released The Rape Gang Inquiry Report. Occurring over decades, some 250,000 girls were raped, tortured, and abused, with some even killed. Yet authorities and the media covered up these diabolical crimes in the interests of not being 'racist' and 'Islamophobic'.
24 June 2026
9.8 MINS
Starmer’s reign was characterised by periods of unrest and violence, massive scandals and a two-tiered justice system that targeted Brits while giving special treatment to Muslim immigrants. The Rape Gang Report alleges Starmer allowed 13,000 Muslim rapists go with letters of warning, while Brits who spoke up against the injustice were penalised.
23 June 2026
5.4 MINS
Gabbard released 1,600 pages of declassified documents on her final day in office revealing how the intelligence community built a protective structure around Fauci and defended it in the name of national security.
23 June 2026
4 MINS
Christian, captain and soccer legend Lionel “Leo” Messi is giving all the glory to God as he makes FIFA 2026 World Cup headlines. The Argentinian is widely respected for his integrity, humility and the way he carries himself on and off the pitch.
Amen Kurt, well said and yes it may get a bit bumpy for a bit.
Really good article offering a valid take – that ON support doesn’t necessarily come from a rag-tag bunch of disgruntled misfits, but a core constituency wanting a return to conservative values.
Will this surge continue? No. This is it, this is the upper limit of her supporter base. We saw this in 1998 when she peaked with 22.68% of the primary vote.
One Nation support, … comes disproportionately from manual workers, trade union members, those who describe themselves as working class, the less well educated, men and people who never attend church. (Clive, Bean; McAllister, Ian (2000). “Voting Behaviour”. In Simms, M; Warhurst, J (eds.). Howard’s Agenda: The 1998 Australian Election. University of Queensland Press. p. 181.).
Just a few observations:
Newspoll’s finding marks the first time in Australian history that a minor party is more popular than either of the majors — no small achievement.
Not true. She’s only ahead of one of the majors.
Senator Alex Antic alone defied his party to vote against the dystopian bill.
Maybe it’s time he sat with the Nationals. He doesn’t even have to change parties. The SA Liberal Party is the SA equivalent of the LNP after all, the result of a merger between Libs and Nats.
CO, the article you quote is over 20 years old. I can confirm that the voter base of ON is much broader now. Small business owners , immigrants who have seen what happens in their country of origin and yes quite a few Christians from professional backgrounds.
Thanks Kathy.
Yes, I think that quote is relevant because that’s when she was last at these levels of support. She ended up with 11 seats in Parliament. And yet within two years the party fell apart, and she ended up with none – they all became independents.
As Kurt mentions, she is incredibly dictatorial and has a top down approach to leadership. Though the party’s name has changed back to One Nation – it’s still very much her party.
Just look at NSW where she had three representatives – two in the upper house and one in the lower – and all three are now independents.
She may have cooked Barnaby a nice steak when she invited him over, but Barnaby’s going to be another Mark Latham.
So if this level of support continues (and even if it comes from a diverse supporter base as you suggest) and even if she picks up a few seats at the next election, will it last?
No. It will all just implode.
How do we know this?
Because when it comes to One Nation, we’ve seen it all before.
In my opinion, the new Hate Speech Law is the most diabolical, tyrannical, totalitarian law to prevent Free Speech and keep Albanese’s Labor Govt. in power forever. It is specifically designed to target any opposition Party from ever winning Govt. . Mr. Daniel Wild , the Deputy Executive of “The Institute of Public Affairs ” said it can be used to censor political opponents and could capture One Nation, Advance Australia, and, even The Institute itself ! Orwell :” If you control speech, you control thought ” . So, why would Sussan Ley support it ? Only she knows ! My personal experience is a woman’s worst enemy is always another woman. They fight dirty, often using lies and the “stab in the back “, all motivated by envy. In this case , from what I have read, the weapon is Retrospective Legislation which means that any member of a Political Party , of any Group, and any Australian can be prosecuted, fined an enormous sum and jailed for 15 years if they made public comments eg on Social Media, even years ago that offends someone in some vague way .There is no way these some 500 pages were written in a couple of weeks! This Legislation must have been concocted perhaps many years ago waiting for the opportune moment, the Bondi Massacre. It will not stop future attacks because, as in the UK , we have “Sleeper Cells ” funded by Overseas Terrorist Regimes waiting to destroy our democracy, religion and Australian Values. Josh Lees and Eleanor Morley of the Pro-Palestinian Marches are to register a new political Party(NSW Soc.) “Socialism” in Australia really means ” The Communist Party of Australia, 1971 ” . They try to hide its real name because it could prevent many people from joining the Marches if they learnt its true objectives are not really just Palestine . Overseas similar groups disrupt church Services and destroy synagogues. They are useful to spread terror , disrupt society and bring about Marxist Rule. The Communists were only a handful of people in Russia, yet they managed to take over the whole country. One Nation’s Policies are not confined to Migration, but, cover all the problems Australia is facing. It is true to Menzies’ Patriotic Liberal Values for the betterment of Australia and all its people, regardless of colour or race. The new Hate Law is retrospective , so, it needs to choose its candidates carefully to avoid disqualification from the next election. It may be that One Nation never gets to contest the election if the Labor Govt. has it deregistered using the new vague Hate Law.
I have no proof that either Josh Lees and Eleanor Morley are Members of ‘The Communist Party of Australia 1971 “. The Aims and Objectives of their proposed Political Party (NSW Soc.) should be thoroughly scrutinised before they are given registration. In my opinion ,they should prove that they will not incite harm to Australia and Australians , and, not preach Hatred of Israel and USA or hatred of any religion. They should provide details of any Overseas Funding with itemised details of the amounts to prove they are not funded by Terrorist Organisations, and, conversely , that they are not sending money Overseas to “Charities ” which are covers for Terrorist Groups –see Italy’s arrests and on-going investigation with the Netherlands in cracking down on 37 “Charities ” , some very well-known ,which are money laundering, involved in weapons acquisition, drugs and prostitution, pretending to be ” humanitarian aid ” for Palestine . Personally , I have no faith in our System and Institutions which needs a clean sweep by One Nation which is gaining supporters every day. To “drain the swamp ” is a massive task, but, needed to save our nation, values and religions.
One Nation’s rising popularity will make it harder for Christian parties like Family First to see their candidates elected.
Interestingly, the reason why FF has never taken off up here is because it is seen as a distinctly South Australian party. People up here have plenty of homegrown choices – UAP, KAP, ON and of course, our very own LNP.
The South Australian division of the Liberal Party is certainly providing a blueprint to that end.
The branch stacking fiasco shows that is clearly not the case. If you want a blueprint – look to the LNP.
The future direction of conservative federal politics will not emanate out of SA (as Cory Bernardi came to learn first hand) – it will come from Queensland.
The Newspoll this week, showing a Queensland party as the number one non-Labor party in Australia. And then today, David Littleproud, a Queenslander, determining who he wants as the Liberal Party leader.
Furthermore, if the Nats leave the coalition, then so should all of the LNP – leaving the Liberals as a little rump (albeit still with the numbers to be the official opposition).
Queensland is the beating heart of conservatism in Australia.
Great article in the complex world of politics. There are massive changes taking place and more to come!
Yeah bro, you’re right.
But what do you reckon the massive changes are going to be?
A new Liberal leader? That’s not massive. So what? You make that big claim!
So yes, I think you should write an article on the Liberal leadership (which is pretty ho-hum) and then talk about the ‘massive changes taking place and more to come!’
What are they? Seriously?
What are the massive changes? So often we hear from CD all this hyperbole.
So what are these massive changes? Why throw that out there without any specifics?
Last Tuesday the Australian government forced a bill which attempts to make political advocacy for the interests of White/Anglo Australians illegal.
Australia Day is this Monday. The March for Australia is set to overwhelm the so-called “invasion day” rallies across the country, further boosting patriotic sentiment. In Melbourne, the only thing protecting patriots will be police, so expect footage of Antifa terrorists bashing grandmothers, gaslighting about the violence by the media, and tacit or direct support from all levels of government for the anti-Australian marchers to stoke further resentment against the Albanese government.
March for Australia administrators encouraged members to join White Australia political party – ABC News
ABC NEWS Verify’s Matt Martino and Michael Workman
Insightful article. Thank you Kurt.
Anecdotal evidence and I’ve been asking many of my friends and family over the weekend… But who would you like to lead our country?
David or Pauline?
And that’s what it comes down to. What Queensland decides, decides the nation.
When Sir Joh ran for PM he had 88% of the vote out here.
Where I live is absolutely National Party heartland.
And my poll of friends and family is split. 50% are Pauline, and 50% are David.
But we all agree we need to get rid of Scott Buchholz unless he resigns from the Liberal Party and joins us. Should we vote for One Nation? No. But should we have a National Party candidate?
Yes!
It’s going to be a very exciting next election! Let’s hope we get rid of these liberals and replace them with conservatives!