Australia’s Largest Christian News Site

The Farrer by-election wasn’t just a Liberal loss — it was a political extinction event. Ten data-driven reasons why the result was even more catastrophic than it appeared.

The results from the 9 May 2026 Farrer by-election are in, and it is worse than you think. This is because the swing against the Liberals is the single biggest against any one party in modern Australian political history since 1966.

Yes, the Libs lost by a massive margin, but if you look at Farrer’s history, the statistical data booth by booth, the significance of border seats, the informal ballot percentage, and the liberal party response, this was not just a catastrophe — it was an extinction-level event. Here are ten reasons why the Farrer-by election was worse than we all think.

1. The Libs Lost Every. Single. Booth

AEC data from the 9 May by-election indicates that the political bloodbath was so bad that it was a total wipeout. One Nation candidate David Farley and Independent Michelle Milthorpe dominated the count. Booth-by-booth data shows that the Liberal candidate, Raissa Butkowski, failed to secure a primary majority in any single polling place.

Just let that sink in for a moment. This was the seat which just a few short months ago was held by the Leader of the Opposition. To fail to even win a single booth, then, is quite simply a shocking reversal for a party that previously held the entire region with ease.

2. The Libs didn’t even get above 20% in any booth

The Liberal primary vote collapsed to an average of approximately 12.4% across the entire electorate. In a majority of booths, particularly in rural sectors and the outskirts of Albury, the Liberal primary vote struggled to reach even the 15-20% mark. This reflects a massive 31.2% swing against the party, especially when one compares it to the 2025 federal election results.

3. One Nation won all of the border booths

Every seat that borders Farrer is held by the coalition, except one. Farrer borders six electorates: Parkes and Riverina (NSW), Indi, Nicholls, and Mallee (VIC), and Barker (SA). Reports from the 2026 tally room show that One Nation’s David Farley won every polling booth situated along these borders, particularly in the western and southern river reaches where dissatisfaction with water policy and the cost of living was greatest. Based on the by-election results on the borders of Farrer, it is therefore highly likely that nearly every seat in the next election could become an ON representative.

All I know is if I were one of those members, then I’d be having some very serious discussions with my political advisors at my Monday morning staff meeting. Even though a federal election is still some time away, it’s important that they start to prepare a response now.

4. The Liberal vote was even beaten by spoiled ballots in some booths

In an historic humiliation, the AEC’s preliminary booth data shows that in certain small rural polling centres, the number of informal votes (ballots filled out incorrectly or left blank) actually exceeded the total number of primary votes cast for the Liberal candidate. This highlights a profound level of voter apathy or protest against the major party. For instance, below are the statistics for the booth in Balranald:

5. Farrer used to be the safest seat in Coalition history

While “safest seat in history” is obviously a strong rhetorical claim, Farrer has been a fortress for the Coalition since its creation in 1949. Before Saturday’s debacle, the Liberal Party had held the seat continuously from 1949 to 2026. The only anomaly to Liberal dominance was the National’s Tim Fischer, who held the seat from 1984—2001 before that.

To put this in an even wider perspective, in several elections (e.g. 2016 and 2019), the Liberal primary vote sat on or just above 70%, making it one of the most secure conservative strongholds in the country.

6. The Labor Party didn’t even field a candidate!

The Australian Labor Party (ALP) made the strategic decision to not even contest the Farrer by-election. This means the Liberal party didn’t even need to contest the by-election against another major party, yet it still only received 12% of the total vote. What’s more, one has to also recognise that the 31.03% swing away from the Libs is the largest ever of any major party’s primary vote in a contested federal seat since the formation of the Liberal Party in 1944.

This wasn’t then just a case of the Liberal Party needing to “take its medicine” as Angus Taylor tried to spin it on election night, but of the party Sir Robert Menzies formed over eighty-years ago being effectively euthanased. Maybe that’s also why the party room on Saturday night looked and felt like people were at a wake.

7. The Total Coalition Vote Combined Could Only Achieve Third Place

In an “existential crisis” result for conservative politics, the Liberal Party (12.4%) and the National Party (9.7%) primary votes combined reached only 22.1%. This was significantly lower than the 28.4% achieved by Independent Michelle Milthorpe (who came in second) and the 39.4% won by One Nation’s David Farley (who won the seat).

While outside the purview of this particular article, the Reform Party in the UK won a similar landslide victory at the same time. Whatever you think about the result, there are tectonic shifts occurring in politics around the Western world. The Farrer by-election then was not a one-off but the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

8. The electorate of Farrer is overnight a safe One Nation seat

With David Farley securing over 57% of the two-candidate-preferred (TCP) vote, Farrer has transitioned from a Liberal stronghold to a Safe One Nation seat. Under standard Australian political definitions, any seat held with a margin of over 6% is considered “safe,” and Farley’s nearly 15-point lead over the Independent runner-up places it firmly in that category.

9. The Liberal Party was formed in Farrer

The Liberal Party of Australia has deep roots in the region. Following the initial 1944 Canberra conference, Sir Robert Menzies held the pivotal Albury Conference in December 1944 specifically in the electorate of Farrer. Hence, it was here that the party’s organisational and constitutional framework was officially drafted.

Albury is often cited as the “spiritual home” or birthplace of the Liberal Party’s structure, much like Jerusalem is for Jews, the Vatican is for Roman Catholics or the city of Mecca for Muslims. It’s ironically fitting then that the place where it all began is also where it should come to an end.

10. The Liberals still could not announce a unique policy in response

Following the defeat, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor admitted the party faced “hard lessons”, but rightly faced criticism from news outlets like The Guardian and The Australian for failing to provide a concrete policy shift. While One Nation campaigned heavily on energy and water rights, the Liberal response focused on internal leadership “spills” rather than addressing the specific regional grievances that led to the wipeout.

In comparison, Pauline Hanson announced one of the most significant political policies of her career. And rather than being involved with cultural war issues of immigration or climate change, it centred on a plan which is almost guaranteed to unite both sides of politics. While hardly anyone in the media is currently talking about it, Hanson’s gas policy is not only common sense but a potential game-changer in addressing the problem of an ever-burgeoning national debt.

The Perennial Problem with Watered-Down Beer…

As if all of those reasons were not bad enough, the Libs are continuing on their strategy of only offering watered-down policies of their opponent. All they seem prepared to do is add lemonade to any drink being offered to men, for fear of their position being too strong.

For instance, when Taylor said that it was time to reject net zero, it was too little, too late. After all, as Energy Minister in 2021, Taylor was involved in the Coalition government’s pledge to adopt net zero by 2050. So it seems pretty insincere to come out now and say that you’re completely against it.

Last weekend was a watershed moment in Australian politics. A time when the electorate proves that the Liberal Party is beyond recovery. People might be talking of the Coalition inviting One Nation (ON) to formally join them, but as you can see from above, there is no reason for ON to accept.

___

Image courtesy of Adobe.