Australia’s Birth Dearth: Our Incredible Shrinking Country

Jean Seah

1 November 2024

3.2 MINS

Rampant immigration in Australia has cloaked the alarming reality that we are in “the biggest ‘baby recession’ since 1970s”, as The Guardian reported recently.

Following the brief pandemic baby boom in 2021, economic uncertainty and the rising cost of living have deterred families from having more children, with the number of births dropping to 286,998 in 2023, the lowest since 2006.

This constitutes a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.50 babies per woman, a record low from 1.86 in 1993. It has not risen above the replacement rate of 2.1 since 1975. Moreover, the median birth age of mothers has climbed to 32.

Migrant women – especially those from northeast Asian countries like China, Japan and Korea – are even less likely to have children

SBS News reported: “The average birth rate among women born in China and living in Australia is 0.85 for the three years between 2021 and 2023. For those born in Korea, it’s 0.86 and for those from Japan, it’s 1.16.

“This compares to 1.69 for those born in Australia and 1.99 for those born in North Africa and the Middle East. Overall, the birth rate for those born overseas is 1.34.”

This is probably due in part to the challenge of raising children without extended family support.

KPMG economist Terry Rawnsley observes: “We haven’t seen such a sharp drop in births in Australia since the period of economic stagflation in the 1970s, which coincided with the initial widespread adoption of the contraceptive pill.”

The ACT and Victoria recorded the lowest TFR in Australia, at 1.31 and 1.39 respectively, while other states and territories managed a TFR of 1.50 to 1.57.

Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher remarks: “The differences in birth rates between states are pretty stark … A political explanation might come to mind. The two states with the biggest share of Millennials and the two states with strong left-leaning young people record lower birth rates than the rest of the nation.”

Australian National University demographer Dr Liz Allen says: “Now we’re confronted with the very likely possibility in Australia that by the mid-2050s, Australia will have more deaths than births.”

With better nutrition and healthcare, people are living longer, and Australia faces a shrinking taxpayer base along with its ageing population. Those with no children, or just one or two, will probably spend their twilight years in nursing homes rather than receiving care from their family. Furthermore, couples who do have children will have fewer siblings or other family members for support.

A vicious circle will be created, as declining population results in low economic growth, further discouraging people from having babies.

Rawnsley relates: “If you look at the international data and you look at countries that have slipped below 1.5 – places like Italy, South Korea, Japan – and in those countries you do start to have this demographic time bomb starting to go off.

“There are less and less workers being able to generate economic activity, people start to leave the country due to a lack of economic opportunities, and you do start to have a slippery slope towards a declining population.”

Dreams Dashed

Couples of childbearing age put off or abandon their dreams of starting a family due to the lack of job and housing stability, along with bleak views of the future because of climate-change alarmism.

Allen states: “Many young people are saying ‘we still want to have kids’ but the data really shows that they’re unlikely to achieve those intentions or desires, and that’s because life gets in the way.

“It is near impossible to break into the housing market, and historically, home ownership has been this stepping stone towards establishing a family.”

She says that state and federal governments need to focus on the areas affecting the creation of families. “Change the language, have leadership that really signals positivity for the future, but at the heart of it, … housing affordability, economic security, and that really comes down to job security.”

Rawnsley notes that Australia has managed to arrest declining fertility in the past. “When you look at the drop-off in the number of births, you have to go back to the early 1970s to find a drop of a similar size.

“And that’s during a period of very high inflation, an increasing unemployment rate during the 1970s, so there’s a bit of a parallel towards that sort of 1970s drop-off and what we’re seeing 50 years later.”

Kuestenmacher avers: “In the long run, baby bonuses do not increase births. The uptick in the Australian birth rate around 2008 is not because of the Howard government’s handouts but due to a general sense of optimism in the country triggered by a juicy mining boom and favourable global trade conditions.

“To drive births up, we would need to change the macro-economic climate in favour of young families. … making housing much more affordable, we could stabilise or even increase the birth rate. Any meaningful attempt to increase the birth rate would certainly be expensive.”

That would entail reining in immigration and providing family-friendly taxation via income-splitting. Will our politicians act swiftly before we reach a point of no return?

___

Republished with thanks to News Weekly.

About the Author: Jean Seah

Australia / Children / Family / NEWS

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3 Comments

Pauline Tondl 1 November 2024 at 2:08 pm - Reply

Surely one way to drive births up would be to drive abortions down.

Clearly men and women are making babies – Australian-made babies are being aborted at about 90,000 PER YEAR.

If our current annual birth number is around 290,000, then adding in roughly those 90,000 aborted babies would raise it to around 380,000 – SUBSTANTIALLY better .. about 25% better.

Is the ABS talking to our governments about this ?
Rae Bewsher 1 November 2024 at 6:41 pm - Reply

The abortion issue is certainly in there, and governments need to change their conversations. Good article.
Countess Antonia Maria Violetta Scrivanich 4 November 2024 at 4:37 pm - Reply

Stop immigration. This would make homes more affordable and available and reduce pressure on health services , roads , etc. There, also, needs to be respect in the media for traditional families and values . Schools need to return to studying the classics which teach real values. As an Only Child , whose relatives remained in Europe ,I have joined the ranks of the lonely “abandoned parent ” left to survive as best I can while my children work to pay the bills. Both are sad that financial reasons meant that by the time they were in a position to afford a second child , it was too late. Australia is in trouble facing a future with more elderly , than young people . There will be no nursing homes or people to take care of us , especially in rural areas–something I am already experiencing.