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Violent crimes are continuing to fall steeply after more than one year of President Donald Trump’s policies. The White House attributes the dramatic decline to mass deportations and enhanced law enforcement, though experts note multiple factors are at play.

Violent crimes are continuing to fall steeply after more than one year of President Donald Trump’s policies. According to a report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, representing police agencies in the nation’s 67 largest cities and metropolitan areas, violent crime between 1 January and 31 March 2026 was significantly lower than in the same period in 2025. Homicides declined by nearly 20%, and robberies declined by more than 20%, while rapes fell by 7.2% and aggravated assaults fell by nearly 5%.

The largest declines were recorded in Baltimore County, Maryland, where homicides fell by more than 83%; Suffolk County, New York, where homicides fell by about 73%; Omaha, Nebraska, where homicides fell by just over 71%; and Buffalo, New York, where homicides fell by 70%. Other areas which saw significant drops in homicides include Aurora, Colorado; Newark, New Jersey; Washington, D.C.; Raleigh, North Carolina; Portland; and Philadelphia.

Despite the steep declines, 16 jurisdictions did see slightly more homicides in 2026 than in 2025: Albuquerque, New Mexico; Charlotte, North Carolina; Chicago; Cincinnati, Ohio; Cleveland, Ohio; Dallas; Dekalb County, Georgia; Denver; Detroit; Fairfax County, Virginia; Fresno, California; Honolulu, Hawaii; Las Vegas; Mesa, Arizona; Minneapolis; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; Orlando, Florida; Sacramento, California; Salt Lake City, Utah; San Antonio, Texas; San Diego, California; San Francisco; and Wichita, Kansas.

White House Credits Deportations, Media Points to Post-COVID Trends

Mainstream media reports have largely credited the falling crime rates to a post-COVID-19 drop-off, but the White House has attributed the increase in public safety to Trump administration policies, including deportations. In response to a decrease in violent crimes recorded last year, the White House touted “mass deportations.”

“The results are especially pronounced in Democrat-run jurisdictions where the Trump Administration conducted mass deportation and enhanced law enforcement operations,” the statement read. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) likewise credited border security and deportations of criminal illegal immigrants for the dramatic decline in crime rates, noting that 70% of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests have targeted violent offenders.

“There can be no question that the record number of deportations, of which 70% are criminals, has had a noticeable effect on public safety,” Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, told The Washington Stand. She observed that the Trump administration has “prioritised” the arrest of violent offenders, including gang members, human traffickers, drug dealers, murderers, rapists, and others who are responsible for violent crimes.

Whether this will be measurable in crime rates is hard to say, because many other factors affect those rates, including policing strategies, prosecution policies, budgets, and even the weather,” Vaughan noted.

“We do know from experience that certain criminals, such as gang members, are responsible for a disproportionate share of crime, so removing them instead of allowing them to remain and keep offending is a good use of resources,” she continued. “This is why we have seen an explosion in local law enforcement agencies signing up to work with ICE.”

Lora Ries, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Border Security and Immigration Center, said in comments to TWS, “Because the Trump administration has been focusing on deporting the ‘worst of the worst’ deportable aliens, Americans are indeed safer. Additional, preventable crimes have been prevented.”

She continued, “An additional factor is likely the deceiving statistics in jurisdictions where charges are downgraded, dismissed, or simply not pursued because the prosecutors and judges have a ‘social justice’ agenda.”

In the midst of carrying out the president’s promised deportation agenda, ICE has routinely shared updates on the “worst of the worst” illegal immigrants arrested. As recently as last week, ICE confirmed that it had arrested Mexican national Miguel Angel Rodriguez-Ramirez, who was convicted of “continuous sexual abuse with a child under 14-years-old” in California; Mexican national Enrique Garcia-Pineda, who was convicted of lewd conduct with a minor under the age of 16 in Idaho; Mexican national Miguel Simon-Marcial, who was convicted of assaulting a pregnant woman in Texas; Cuban national Pedro Fernandez, who was convicted of trafficking cocaine; and others.

Criminal Immigration Encounters Surged Under Biden, Now Declining

Under former President Joe Biden, illegal immigration into the US increased dramatically, and the immigration of violent offenders along with it. According to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) statistics, fiscal years 2017 through 2019 saw a yearly average of 6,499 CBP encounters with illegal immigrants who had criminal records.

That number fell to fewer than 2,500 in 2020, during COVID-19, but rapidly rose to nearly 11,000 in 2021, Biden’s first year in office, peaking at more than 17,000 in fiscal year 2024. During Biden’s tenure in the White House, CBP encountered an annual average of nearly 14,000 illegal immigrants with criminal convictions.

Trump’s first year back in office, fiscal year 2025, saw that number nearly halved, down to 8,814. As of February, fiscal year 2026 has seen CBP encounter only 2,664 illegal immigrants with criminal records. Criminal convictions recorded include murder, homicide, and manslaughter; assault, battery, and domestic violence; burglary, robbery, larceny, theft, and fraud; sexual offences; and others. Not including illegal entry and re-entry to the US, the most commonly encountered criminal convictions are driving under the influence and drug trafficking.

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Republished with thanks to The Washington Stand. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.