Trump Leads Biden Nationally in Polls, Gains Support Among Young Voters

1 March 2024

2.1 MINS

A round-up of recent polls shows former President Donald Trump to be the favoured pick ahead of November’s election.

As Super Tuesday draws nearer, Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in major polls. A recent Emerson College/The Hill survey found that 46% of Michigan voters favor former President Donald Trump, while 44% prefer incumbent Joe Biden, with 10% undecided. Significantly, Independent voters prefer Trump to Biden 43% to 37%. Ahead of the primary on March 5, nearly 70% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump, 20% plan to vote for former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, and 11% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean towards, Trump’s support increases to 76% and Haley’s to 24%.

According to the poll, 31% of Michigan voters rated the economy as their chief concern. Other top concerns included immigration (13%), threats to democracy (12%), and health care (10%). Voters most concerned about the economy prefer Trump over Biden 56% to 33%, and voters most concerned about immigration prefer Trump over Biden by a staggering 86% to 7%. Additionally, 57% of Michigan voters expressed concern over Biden’s age. Among voters under the age of 50, 63% expressed concern over Biden’s age.

This follows an Axios/Generation Lab Youth poll showing that Trump is gaining on Biden among young voters across the nation. Biden maintains a four-point lead over Trump (52% to 48%) among voters aged 18 to 34. Young voters also rated the economy as their top concern (39%), with abortion (16%), immigration (11%), student debt (11%), and climate change (10%) also of concern. Other surveys, however, have shown Trump leading Biden among young voters. A New York Times/Siena poll in December showed Trump leading Biden 49% to 43% among voters under the age of 30, while an NBC News Poll in November showed voters aged 18 to 34 preferring Trump over Biden 46% to 42%. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden had a 20-point lead over Trump among young voters, according to exit polls and the Pew Research Center.

Nationwide, Trump is expanding his lead over Biden. A Rasmussen Reports survey released last week and conducted the week before found Trump leading Biden 47% to 41% among voters across the country, with 9% supporting “some other candidate” and 2% undecided. As in other polls, Trump had a strong lead over Biden among independent voters, leading the incumbent Democrat by 16 points. When third-party candidates were included in the running, Trump still led Biden 43% to 37%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering 12% support and other candidates claiming 5%. Even then, Trump maintained a 10-point lead over Biden among independent voters.

A recent HarrisX poll also found Trump leading Biden nationally, 47% to 38%. According to that survey, Trump still maintains a 10-point lead over Biden (40% to 30%) among independent voters. The HarrisX poll also shows Trump garnering greater support from Republicans (87%) than Biden earns from Democrats (77%).

Another poll — this one from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult — also shows Trump leading Biden in seven swing states, 48% to 42%. According to that poll, Trump leads Biden in Arizona (47% to 44%), Georgia (49% to 41%), Michigan (47% to 42%), Nevada (48% to 40%), North Carolina (49% to 39%), Pennsylvania (48% to 45%), and Wisconsin (49% to 44%). When third-party candidates are included, Trump would still garner 44% support across the seven swing states, while Biden would only claim 35%. Additionally, 53% of respondents said the country was better off under Trump than under Biden, and more respondents trusted Trump than Biden to handle issues such as the economy (51% to 33%), crime (48% to 31%), immigration (52% to 30%), U.S.-China relations (49% to 31%), the Russia-Ukraine conflict (45% to 33%), and the Israel-Hamas conflict (45% to 30%).


Republished with thanks to The Washington Stand. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

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