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There is only one significant question worth asking about the Australian government’s naval review: when will the ships actually be delivered?

The history of defence reviews and promised military equipment for the past three decades has been a sorry saga of promises, delays and disappointments, of which the replacement of the Collins class submarines is the most egregious example.

The latest plan revealed last month offers nothing to counter these concerns.

The Plan

The Plan, in summary, involves six elements.

First, the independent review found a $25 billion funding hole in the Navy’s surface fleet program.

In response, the Albanese government will inject an additional $1.7 billion over the next Forward Estimates and $11.1 billion in additional funding over the next decade for the Navy’s surface combatant fleet and Australia’s shipbuilding industry.

The Government says it is committed to “continuous naval shipbuilding” in Australia with a promise of more than 3700 direct jobs in South Australia and Western Australia over the next decade.

Hunter-class frigates and destroyers will continue to be built at Osborne Naval Shipyard in South Australia. There is a plan for eight new general-purpose frigates to be built at WA’s Henderson Shipyard although the precinct is not currently configured for this build.

The plan will see a doubling of the Navy’s major surface combatant fleet, from 11 warships to 20 by the mid to late 2040s in addition to six semi-autonomous Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels (LOSV).

The “larger and more lethal Australian Navy” will comprise three upgraded Hobart class destroyers, six Hunter class frigates (rather than the initially planned nine), 11 new general-purpose frigates (which will eventually replace Anzacs), six new Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels (LOSVs)

Will It Work?

The Plan has all the hallmarks of a political response — and the dangers of the existing approach to defence, including excessive time frames and the risk of significant cost escalation.

There are a number of factors that have contributed to the defence inertia: the perverse influence of South Australian domestic politics on national security; the lack of urgency and the desire for bespoke solutions in the Defence department; the churn of governments and defence ministers; and the continuing ‘she’ll be right, mate’ attitude to the threats facing Australia.

If Australia is ever invaded, a large portion of the blame for our lack of preparedness can be sheeted home to a generation of South Australian politicians who put parochial interests ahead of national security.

The Rudd – Gillard governments wasted years without a ship purchase. The country is still playing catch-up in an increasingly fractious world.

This was exacerbated under Malcolm Turnbull who made promoting domestic defence industries a primary consideration. Bidding wars between states to manufacture equipment in Australia became commonplace when suitable equipment could have been purchased from overseas.

These factors are evident in the government’s response, particularly the continued emphasis on local shipbuilding, which is slower and more costly than purchasing off-the-shelf.

Raising defence expenditure to 2.4 per cent of GDP is welcome, but delivery on promises remains the issue. Timeframes out to the mid-2040s are less than reassuring. The region is not static. Potential aggressors are rapidly upgrading and expanding their militaries, including their naval fleets.

Of the $11 billion in additional funding, only $1.7 billion will be expended in the next four years!

It is a mark of the minister’s timidity that he has offered a briefing on the plan to the Chinese Communist Party.

There seems a continued tacit reliance on the US to come to our aid and a naive belief that regional conflict will not occur.

An urgent consideration of Australia’s defence needs over the next five years is overdue.

Instead, the government promises programs to be delivered well into the future and well after it will have left office.

Australia is sailing “on a wing and a prayer.”

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Republished with thanks to the Hon. Kevin Andrews. Image courtesy of Soly Moses.