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Wednesday greeted what seemed like the calm before a storm. President Donald Trump had promised to take action if the Iranian regime killed protestors, and the regime had done plenty of killing. American military bases in the Middle East went on high alert. Iran closed its airspace.

“All the signals are that a U.S. attack is imminent,” an unnamed Western military official told Reuters. “But that is also how this administration behaves to keep everyone on their toes. Unpredictability is part of the strategy.” As of this writing, the expected strike has not yet come.

This apparent change of course is not entirely without a cause.

On Wednesday, Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei insisted the government proceed quickly with trials and executions of demonstrators arrested over the past three weeks. “If we want to do a job, we should do it now. If we want to do something, we have to do it quickly,” he said.

“If it becomes late, two months, three months later, it doesn’t have the same effect. If we want to do something, we have to do that fast.” Thus far, the Iranian regime has detained 18,400 demonstrators, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Signals of War: Washington and Tehran Brace for Impact

The few bits of news that pierced Iran’s information blackout suggested the regime was preparing to do just that. In one high-profile case, the family of 26-year-old clothing merchant Erfan Soltani learned four days after his January 8 detention (without communication) that he had already been tried and sentenced to death, with the execution date set for this Wednesday.

“If they do such a thing, we will take very strong action,” President Trump reacted Wednesday to the news of imminent Iranian executions. “We don’t want to see what’s happening in Iran happen. And you know, if they want to have protests, that’s one thing. When they start killing thousands of people, and now you’re telling me about hanging — we’ll see how that works out for them. It’s not going to work out good.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who appears to be one of the most influential of Trump’s aides, reiterated the point on Wednesday night. “President Trump has put down a red line that this killing of innocent civilians, which is apparently in the thousands now — unarmed people being shot in hospitals, being shot on the streets, being shot with their children — this has got to stop. And President Trump is going to see to that,” he said.

Wednesday morning, Trump posted a vague message to Iranian protestors that “help is on its way.” Many commentators interpreted that as a signal that military action could be imminent. Throughout the day, multiple actions from the American government reinforced that interpretation.

Non-essential personnel at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the target of Iran’s retaliatory thrust after the U.S. bombed its nuclear facilities, were advised to evacuate. The U.S. military halted movement into American bases in Kuwait, and American embassies in the Middle East issued security alerts.

The activities were so consistent with imminent military action that the Iranian regime made its own preparations, issuing a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) that it closed its airspace for five hours overnight.

Then came the twist.

The Regime Blinks: Executions Halted Under Threat of U.S. Action

In a last-ditch effort to escape what may have been a devastating American bombardment — is there an Islamic equivalent of a Hail Mary? — the Iranian regime apparently suspended all executions of prisoners.

“We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping. It’s stopped. It’s stopping, and there’s no plan for executions,” Trump told reporters during a signing ceremony. “So I’ve been told that on good authority. We’ll find out about it. I’m sure if it happens, we’ll all be very upset, including you will be very upset. But that’s just gotten to me, some information, that the killing has stopped, that the executions have stopped. They’re not going to have an execution, which a lot of people were talking about for the last couple of days.”

When asked about the source of this surprising news, Trump replied, “We have been informed by very important sources on the other side, and they’ve said the killing is stopped and the executions won’t take place. There were supposed to be a lot of executions today, and the executions won’t take place, and we’re going to find out. I mean, I’ll find out after this; you’ll find out. But we’ve been told on good authority, and I hope it’s true. Who knows? Who knows? Crazy world.”

Details are sketchy, due to the difficulty of verifying what the Iranian regime is actually doing behind its internet blackout. There is little more to report on than the information that President Trump himself provided. However, news outlets have confirmed the fate of one man: Soltani’s family received word that his execution had been postponed, although the Iranian regime now denies that he ever received a death sentence. The Iranian regime has postponed the execution of prisoners under public scrutiny before, only to execute them later once the spotlight had passed.

After the Pause: Protest Crushed, Questions Unanswered

On Thursday morning, Iran reopened its airspace, suggesting they now believe that a U.S. airstrike is now not quite as imminent as it was before. Perhaps Trump had ordered an airstrike, and Iran’s well-timed decision to suspend executions (or claim thereto) prompted him to call the strike off. Or perhaps Trump had not yet decided to strike, and a mere bluff induced the Iranians to back off. The answer as to which option is correct is likely highly classified.

However, two facts are certain. First, Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman engaged in “frantic”, last-minute lobbying to prevent a strike, citing “grave blowbacks in the region,” a Saudi official suggested. As natural rivals to Shia-majority Iran, these Sunni-majority oil producers benefit from Iran’s pariah status and would be the losers in any situation where the U.S. built good relations with the government of Iran.

Second, the Iranian protests appear to be waning without American intervention. The Iranian regime has carried out an unprecedented crackdown, massacring 2,615 demonstrators, according to HRANA, compared to only 153 who have died among the government forces. Combined with more than the 18,000 who have been detained, government forces have taken 20,000 demonstrators off the streets in three weeks, and the rest are understandably afraid and discouraged.

The reason for the one-sided bloodbath is simple. As one Tehran resident described it, “The people do not have guns. Only the security forces have guns.” Without internet access to coordinate their activities and broadcast them to the outside world, the demonstrators are increasingly operating in the dark. While Trump promised that help was on the way, Iranians were willing to continue fighting. But if that help was intercepted by the regime’s delaying tactics, those Iranians demonstrating for freedom may despair of final victory.

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Republished with thanks to The Washington Stand. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.