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A new IFS report finds conservatives have and want more children than progressives, with the gap linked to greater fears about parenting, mental health, and genetics among liberals.

Progressive Americans have and desire fewer children than conservatives, according to a June 2026 report by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) titled “The Ideological Fertility Divide.”

The report, based on survey results from more than 7,000 Americans aged 18-54, shows statistically significant gaps between ideology types in both the number of children adults currently have and the number of children they want.

This gap is due, at least in part, to higher fears about parenting among progressives.

Results

The headline result is that conservative adults have 1.40 children on average, compared to an average of 1.09 for progressives. Another way of framing these data is that conservatives have 28% more children than liberals.

If both numbers seem suspiciously low, remember that the survey targets an age range from 18 to 54. This includes college students and young adults just setting out on their own. The estimated median age for marriage is now 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women, according to the US Census Bureau in December 2025.

Thus, 36% of the ages surveyed are younger than the average age of marriage. If the low numbers show anything, it reflects the cultural trend to marry later and have children later than was customary with earlier generations.

A more insightful result may come from the survey’s question asking respondents to identify their ideal number of children. Conservatives gave answers that averaged out to 2.71 children, while liberals gave answers that averaged 2.16 children. Like the first result, conservatives gave answers that were 25% higher than liberals, and which were statistically significant.

The discrepancy seems due in part to liberals registering more concerns over parenting, genetics, and mental health. When asked whether they would be a good parent, 18% of liberals were unsure, compared to 9% of conservatives. Fully a third (36%) of liberals viewed parenting as “very complicated, difficult, and stressful”, compared to a quarter (24%) of conservatives.

“Given that both beliefs are associated with fewer children, their increased prevalence among progressives may help explain the ideological fertility gap,” analysed the IFS.

Progressives (18%) were also more likely than conservatives (10%) to worry about passing on bad genes or hereditary conditions to their children. And progressives (19%) were more likely than conservatives (10%) to say their mental health is currently too poor to have children. Both of these concerns were also correlated with fewer children.

Analysis

Although it may be tempting to interpret these results in a stark binary — conservatives love kids, progressivism is antithetical to families, etc. — the results show more of a spectrum (especially since “moderates” fell roughly in between).

Indeed, the fact that conservatives gave answers that resulted in only 25% more children than progressives, on average, suggests that the two groups are closer to one another than much political rhetoric suggests.

There are certainly factors that make conservatives more likely to have children than progressives, but the difference seems to be one of degree rather than kind. And, since both ideologies are implicated, it makes sense to look for cultural explanations rather than political ones.

The defining cultural feature of our time is what theologian Carl Trueman calls “expressive individualism,” where each person is defined by an inner core, and authenticity is found in expressing that outwardly.

This notion is reflected in such simple phrases as “you do you”, “do what tastes right”, or “my truth”, as well as more radical expressions in things such as transgender ideology.

But Trueman depicts this ideology as the stuff we all swim in; just as a fish sees the water around it as simply normal, so Americans are so inculcated in this belief that we may not even realise how it affects us.

With regard to family formation, expressive individualism undoubtedly has a negative effect. It encourages people to pursue dreams, such as career, travel, experiences, and so forth, as well as making their dreams more self-focused.

Unless a person dreams of reading “Go, Dog, Go” 12 times in a day or coaching Little League, having children typically puts their dreams on hold for at least two decades.

Expressive Individualism and the Therapy Mindset

Expressive individualism has a greater influence over progressives than conservatives. The notion stems from mainstream progressive thought, so their worldview offers no resistance to it. Conservative ideas, especially those rooted in Christianity, often challenge the presuppositions of expressive individualism, leading conservatives to more self-consciously resist its effects.

Relatedly, modern American culture is dominated by a therapy mindset, which encourages people to pursue self-validation but, counter-intuitively, tends to weaken a person’s mental health — hence the modern tsunami of mental issues.

According to the study, these affect progressives more than conservatives. Parenting largely consists of doing thankless tasks ad nauseam, not to mention the other negative indicators for mental health: poor sleep, “toxic” relationships (because children are born sinful).

Parenting provides neither self-validation nor a “safe space,” but it does provide deep happiness and fulfilment for those who rebel against cultural expectations and put others (particularly that screaming toddler) first.

Culture, Faith, and the Fertility Gap

Perhaps that last sentence came out of order, but these themes are so closely intertwined that it is hard to separate them. Another feature of American culture is virulent anti-child propaganda.

From Hollywood to the media, there are numerous examples of cultural icons who talk down to settling down, glorify irresponsibility, or simply provide lousy examples of how to parent.

Thus, when people exposed to such propaganda override its influence and choose to have children anyway, they really are rebelling against the expectations the culture has set for them.

Perhaps this is the origin of the concerns many people, both progressive and conservative, feel about whether they will be an adequate parent.

If young people know about family life only from television (or worse, social media), without any real contact with families living life around them, it will give them a distorted picture of what it looks like. It is essentially fear of the unknown, in another form.

A final cultural factor is the anti-life sentiment stemming from secularism. If human beings are nothing special, then what’s so special about making more of them? But, if humans are made in the image of God — and conservatives are more likely than progressives to acknowledge this — then there is a great blessing in raising up the next generation of image-bearers.

“Behold, children are a heritage from the Lord, the fruit of the womb a reward. Like arrows in the hand of a warrior are the children of one’s youth. Blessed is the man who fills his quiver with them!” (Psalm 127:3-5)

Alas, it seems that not many conservatives have fully committed themselves to this idea. While some people have large families, the ideal family size for conservatives only averages out to 2.71 children — hardly higher than the replacement rate.

If an archer is happy with fewer than three arrows in his quiver, then perhaps this is adequate. But if not, it seems that even the conservative ideal for having children is closer to the progressive ideal than the biblical one.

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Republished with thanks to The Washington Stand.